Here are some actual crisis scenario examples which might happen in the near future. I am not an actual scientist or an expert in terms of forecasting and predicting future events but I do have some general ideas of what might happen based on past events. There were several times in the past when humanity came to either local crisis scenarios like when the us dropped by mistake nuclear warheads on its own territory, luckily these were not armed but also in global crisis scenarios.
No matter which crisis scenario may come in the near future you will always need to tend to your basic needs such as food and water, being able to sanitize your own water will be of utmost importance. My personal recommendation is to go with a water filter bottle Click here to check price on Amazon.com
Crisis scenario examples:
- Deep impact
- Economic collapse
- Social unrest
- Global conflict
If you grew up in the late 80’s you might remember that there was a great fear of nuclear war and we did come very close to a full-blown nuclear war between Soviet Russia and the USA.
Meet Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov he was a nuclear submarine officer with the USSR, in 1983 there was an error with the nuclear prevention systems in USSR and they actually thought that the USA has launched a nuclear warhead against Moscow. Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov got an order to launch his nukes from his sub but he disobeyed the orders and considered the threat to be a false alarm.
Disobeying orders in the USSR was punishable by death, and this man has risked his own life to save countless millions. There are a few people who know his story but search it up online and you will see how close humanity came to disaster. In my opinion, this man should have been honored by all humanity but you won’t find any statues or holidays in his name. Luckily there has been only one time that humanity was saved by a single person and in order not to repeat our past mistakes, we should always remember the name Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov.
What is actuarial science?
It is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical models in order to assess risk in insurance, finance, and other industries. Unfortunately, there is no actuarial science for global disasters there is the epidemiology which looks at likelihoods of epidemics and how they might spread. There are also war strategists who would predict how a global war would play out and economists to predict the likelihood of an economic collapse.
First, let me line out the more common local crisis scenario examples which you might face and for which you should prepare. In terms of personal disasters, there are far more likely to occur in your life like burglary, personal theft, assault, fire, home invasion, health care emergencies, and car crashes. There is nothing more SHTF than a terminal illness or getting into a car accident or being the victim of a violent crime.
These small scaled SHTF’s are far more likely to happen and you can even break it down a bit more to other crisis scenarios like divorce, personal financial issues or death of a family member. Everybody should have some sort of plan for your personal SHTF moments. This is where the actuarial science gets interesting because typically of actuarial science doesn’t extend beyond personal and local disasters.
In terms of local disasters this depending on which part of the planet you live and this could be anything from floods, storms, tornadoes, wildfires, terrorism and so on. In these local scenarios, the bulk of the disasters will be local and not countrywide, depending on your area where you live most of these local disaster scenarios are covered by insurance and there is where most peoples emergency preparedness ends.
There are 2 main types of global disasters
- Global anthropogenic disasters which are man-made disasters
- Global natural disasters
In terms of global natural disasters, there really is no sense in ranking these as they will have a global effect and survivability of the human race is at danger. Geologists or other scientists can make predictions about the likelihood of global natural disasters like earthquakes, volcanic activity, solar flares, and even meteors. These things are really hard to predict as they are random except in case of a meteor or asteroid heading for our planet.
Deep impact crisis scenario
In case there is a celestial body heading towards earth these can be predicted in advance as there are several institutes tracking these asteroids and meteors. Even with that early knowledge, I have a hard time that the powers to be would want to inform the public that the world is ending. Informing the public would cause just too much chaos for it to be worth it and realistically probably most people wouldn’t want to know either.
Even as a prepper there is no possible way you could prepare for that, if you are lucky to survive the initial impact there will be a long nuclear winter as all the dust from the impact will block out the sun for years.
Things like meteors, earthquakes, and volcanoes are survivable but planning for these specifically is kind of a long shot.
It is important to remember when you are brainstorming any hypothetical crisis scenario examples that may happen take into consideration the several media filters present in the mainstream media that edit the information that we the public receive. The mainstream media is controlled by a handful of corporations, this is not a conspiracy theory this is just the fact. Critical thinking should always be applied when making any kinds of predictions into the future as the media is most likely going to misinform you to not to cause panic and anarchy.
Also, take in consideration your own biases be you a military person or someone who works in the medical industry or from any other industry, we all see the world from a different point of view and this is going to shape our attention and focus. A person on a medical field may focus on the probability of a pandemic whereas a person in the military will be more focused on a war scenario.
In my opinion, this is the most likely crisis scenario that could happen in the near future. As more and more people travel the likelihood of a pandemic is increasing day by day. With the start of a pandemic, you will have social unrest, shortage of resources, temporary lack of the rule of law and a form of martial law after a while. The martial law will be implemented in order to restore order and there might also be some sort of temporary technology collapse as very few people will go to work and who is going to manage the electrical infrastructure.
The question is not if a pandemic will happen but when and how well is humanity prepared for it.
Economic collapse scenario
The economic collapse will be a by-product of some sort of mass panic induced from some other crisis either man-made or natural in its form. I have already addressed how to prepare for a world without currency but here are some outliners. The economy in many ways is a reflection of our ecology, the access to basic resources like water, food an even air will determine the price of most commodities, if water is scarce and a bottle of water could cost you several thousands of dollars you will get hyperinflation and it is only a matter of time when people ditch the money and start bartering items instead.
If you look at the state in which South America is due to their over-reliance of oil and the price of oil getting cheaper due to more cost-efficient technology. In this case, a lot of South American countries started printing out more money thus making its value to hyperinflate.
If there is an agricultural collapse like in the likelihood of bees dying out and do note that bees are an endangered species in a lot of countries then you will have the price of agricultural products skyrocket. Altho in the bees dying out scenario money is the last thing on your mind as most life on earth will die out in just a few years as plants cant reproduces without bees.
We live in a global market and any abrupt changes in the capacity to supply a certain essential item this, in turn, could lead to an economic collapse.
On top of that, you have the more regional crisis scenarios like oil spills, Fukushima and all the other man-made influence on the environment. It can be a complex issue when we talk about ecology but I think that we can all agree that there is environmental mismanagement whether it is government or big corporations. This has caused a lot of problems in the past and this is something that eventually could come back and bite us in the ass at some point.
In the case of an economic collapse scenario, you are going to have increased crime rates, lack of police and emergency services to respond to the crime rates or health-related emergency situations. In addition to this, there will be food shortages, mass emigrations and lack of housing.
If you want to see a live example of an economic collapse check ou the economic collapse in South America and in Africa, and imagine that happening in your country. There are long term side effects on how we are living at this moment with respect of the food that we not only consume but how much of it we throw away, our sedentary lifestyles and our day to day exposures to chemicals.
Social unrest scenario
Infertility paired with the dissolution of the family unit in the form of nobody wanting to have lasting meaningful relationships and the break down of the typical family model. That is going to have a lasting effect on procreation, a lot of scientists contrary to popular belief are predicting that the population is going to decline in the following decades. This will happen not only due to family planning but also due to the actually lowered sperm counts in men of which not a lot of people talk about.
When you look at the data this is extremely serious as in the last 30 years the average man’s sperm count dropped 40-50% and this infertility could lead to dangerous areas. If the native population stops reproducing governments will “invite” people from other cultures which have a higher birth rate but are incompatible with the native nation’s culture, this is what is happening in Europe at the moment.
In this scenario, you will have an aging population and very few people to replace their jobs and to care for them.
This is a likely crisis scenario as the current generation of leaders have never experienced the horrors of war and could potentially provoke a war with their sheer stupidity. The age of massive wars is over, we are currently living in a global market and war could be very difficult in this scenario but never underestimate the stupidity of your leaders. WW1 has started out of stupidity and WW2 due to greed. The next world war won’t be different.
When Albert Einstein was asked with what weapons will WW 3 fought with he answered
“I dunno,” he said, “but in the war after the next war, sure as Hell, they’ll be using spears!”
The current powers to be are well aware of mutually assured destruction and any sort of nuclear exchange is unlikely to happen. It is far more likely that war will be waged economically perhaps with proxy wars also or through some sort of attrition. There is also a possibility of terrorism and “false flag” attacks but that more likely will still remain localized.
If you look at current military exercises most of these are directed towards crowd control in anticipation of the future economic and ecologic struggles that the human race is going to face.
If you think logically the global conflict scenario is unlikely as the current leaders and their puppet masters don’t want to risk destroying the system which they have built for themselves. If they would want to thin the heard they will do it with an epidemic and not a global conflict.
Cyber warfare has a potential to wreak havoc as this is fairly new technology and governments are slow to adapt to it.
A nation is powerful as long as it can feed its people, we as humans rely on agriculture mostly to feed ourselves and families. The problem is with pollination as this is done by the bees and they are in trouble. In the past 50 years, humanity has spread pesticides all over their fields with more or less success. These pesticides are meant to kill pests which eat or otherwise harm the crops but what nobody asked is what will happen to the bees.
As most of the bees do the pollination so that the flower can become fruit for example and as the bees land on plants which have pesticides on it they will die. Currently, there are several countries where bees are considered endangered and in some parts of China, these are extinct where the local farmers have to pollinate by hand so that they can grow crops.
Once the bees die out humanity has around 4 years to live as crops will simply not reproduce due to the lack of pollination.